Counting loss of 8%

 Counting loss of 8%
recent Seoul National University, Professor Cheng in Shanghai, about to meet me, I want to listen to China's economic situation for 2009 views. He said South Korea is very concerned about this issue,UGG shoes, for China's economic growth In 1992, after a number of China's economic growth rate of about 9% by the average .8% might be seen as the lower limit of potential growth rate. The bottom line growth as the meaning of person riding a bicycle, the speed is too low, is In 2009 instability that we can keep the growth rate of 8% of it? Here we do not discuss policy, but according to some existing text to make a math problem, does not mean the formal forecast.
in accordance with the method of accounting of expenditures and in accordance with the principles of arithmetic, GDP growth rate should be equal to the growth rate of consumer spending, the growth rate of total investment and the trade balance weighted average growth rates. Of course, growth always should be, after deducting price changes, the actual value or in accordance with the comparable prices out.
I do not have the actual value of 2008 the growth rate of consumer spending data, but according to macro-economic Research Center, Xiamen University, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore Institute of Asian Studies has estimated in 2008 at current prices of consumer goods Total retail sales grew by about 18%, and sub-quarter run, the second half of 2008, quarter by quarter retail sales growth fell, particularly in the fourth quarter will be significantly decreased, the third and fourth quarter growth rate estimated at 17.12 % and 13.12%. throughout the year and at constant prices of household consumption growth of 8.49%. this is just the growth rate of household consumption data, without considering the growth in government consumption. We assume that this part of the growth is zero, ie 2007 flat. This assumption, however points, because in 2008 adopted a tightening policy, the Government's actual consumption spending does not significantly increase. In this case, real consumption growth in 2008 may be around 8%.
According to some of the consumer the forecast decline in the current economic situation and the judge, we assume that the actual value of 2009, total spending (including residents and government) increased 7-8% (Needless to say, this is a very optimistic estimate, considering the increase in government expenditure and the effect of policies to stimulate consumption). As a share of GDP, total spending is about 40%, this is the case,bailey UGG boots, consumption in 2009 to contribute to GDP growth figures for the 2.8-3.2 points.
we look at investment. Statistics show that in 2007 at constant prices of gross fixed capital formation growth rate in China is 12%. subject to the impact of macro-control, according to comparable prices, 2008, gross fixed capital formation growth rate probably dropped to about 10%. Taking into account to the inventory of other factors, in 2009 in real terms of gross fixed capital formation growth rate will continue to fall, if assumed to be 8-9%, should not be surprising. in GDP, the total amount of investments nearly half the weight, so the investment GDP growth in 2009 probably contributed to 4-4.5 points out.
Finally, we discuss the trade surplus. counted in GDP, the trade balance rather than total trade, So pay attention to the surplus data. We have been after 1994, trade surplus and trade surplus after 2002 the proportion of GDP, China accounts for around 10% is basically .2006 growth rate of China's trade surplus up 80% year on year (This of course can not explain the reasons why), after a record trade surplus growth .2007 par with them is difficult, but it is clear that the growth rate of trade surplus is bound to come down after. This year on January 13, 2008 transcripts of foreign trade data released. According to Customs statistics, total foreign trade in 2008 reached $ 2,561,630,000,UGGs,000, an increase of 17.8%, compared to previous years 6 years China's foreign trade growth rate of more than 20% in 2008 With the growth rate of a sharp slowdown in external demand and significant decline. which export growth of 17.2% throughout the year, imports rose 18.5%, respectively, lower than the 25.7% in 2007 and 20.8% growth. The trade surplus reached 295.47 billion U.S. dollars, 12.5% over the previous year, an increase of 47.7% compared to 2007 fell by 35 percentage points.
question now is, we can still expect the trade surplus in 2009 will remain positive growth? various studies from the existing , projections and guidance of our macro-policy, unless a miracle has to remain in 2009 even faster than in 2008, the growth of trade surplus is more difficult. If the trade surplus in 2009 decreased slightly compared to 2008 , then the growth rate of trade surplus to a small negative value (assumed to be 0). Another hypothetical situation is that the second half of 2009 significantly improved export situation,Bailey UGG boots, and eventually lead to a surplus of 5% compared to 2008 growth ( I think it should be very optimistic). So, the surplus contribution to the growth of GDP should be 0.5 points.
the value of our contribution to the sum of the three together, in 2009 GDP growth of 6.8-8.2% in the. This data is very easy for us to think of the economic situation in 1997-1999. it should prove Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council held the 19th plenary meeting, on the second and say, difficult year The only miracle is that in 2009 our investment in fixed assets in accordance with the actual value can reach 12% or more, depending on the stimulus that we can produce in the investment aiming at that kind of multiplier effect for the period 1998-2001. This GDP growth for contributed 6 points.
the other hand, my math is based on the traditional GDP accounting method. In fact, this approach has obvious flaws, because the existing accounting methods that are not easy to see that spending on domestic exports investment and the indirect effects of consumer spending. In fact, China's export growth to economic growth mechanism is very complex. Exports of imports, also affect the domestic demand (investment and consumption). and exports is largely a determined by exogenous variables, while imports are mainly an endogenous variable. exporting indirectly stimulate domestic consumption and investment, thereby promoting economic growth, but exports and boost imports, while imports to reduce national income. Some economists put the economy of trade contribution to the growth rate of re-defined as fast-growing year, the contribution of trade to GDP growth than the traditional method will be larger. By the same token, if the situation of China's exports in 2009 has become very severe, then the contribution of trade to GDP growth than would Traditional accounting methods estimated a greater drop. After all, China's trade has been as high as 70% participation rate. trade shocks negative impact on economic growth must not be underestimated.